THE BENNETTS MONTHLY MAY '24

All things Bennetts and Coffee...
Welcome to the May Edition of our Coffee Newsletter! As Autumn settles in, we're torn between iced coffees and hot lattes in Melbourne's unpredictable weather. Competiton Microlot Processing at El Diviso - Colombia SPECIALTY COFFEE ASSOCIATION (SCA) EXPO - UPDATE SCA 2024 - Chicago, USA MARKET REPORT April 2024 NY C Graph Largely, the increase in the Arabica price has been driven by the Robusta London market rally as shown in the graph below. Robusta has faced supply issues from several major producing countries, namely Vietnam, Indonesia, and India, which look to further worsen in their upcoming crops in 2024/25. This fundamental supply and demand issue naturally causes prices to increase. The fact that Robusta is leading the charge of the two markets is highly unusual and something that has never been this sustained in their history. What made April so interesting was the First Notice Day for the May 2024 futures contract terminal month. This is the day that all futures contracts against May have to be settled and the crucial dates were on the 22nd of April for Arabica and 25th of April for Robusta. After months of waiting/ hoping for prices to go down, many roasters and buyers of green coffee around the world were finally faced with a deadline. This caused a flurry of physical buying at destination, which means the suppliers at origin buy futures contracts, adding to the upwards pressure. Banks, hedge funds, and other investment institutions are always on the lookout for quick, liquid markets and it never takes them long to jump on the highway, and this time, they were gonna ride it all night long. With prices looking like they were only going one way they bought futures and added fuel to the fire. Any market participants with shorts quickly saw their margin calls rapidly increase and so a number of stop losses were triggered. Once again, another injection of buying. This chain of events resulted in the market moving very quickly. By First Notice Day the pressure eased off and prices were able to flatten out. As supplier woes continue for Robusta could we see another market jump in June as we approach the FND for July? ![]() Robusta London Market Graph November 23' - April 24' Certified Stocks By the end of April Arabica had 659,000 bags positioned in certified inventories. This is continuing to grow month on month and is 86,000 bags higher than the last report. Robusta had nearly 39,500 MTs in store which again has increased from the previous report, this time by a significant 12,500 MTs, which is equivalent to over 208,000 bags. This large increase has been due to sky high Robusta prices meaning producers can make easy money by selling it to the exchange. Commitment Of Traders Report In the commitment of traders report the commercials net positioned lowered to -66,000 future lots. 10,000 lots shorter from the previous report. The specs have further increased their over net long position to 77,000 lots. HEADING TO BRAZIL As we prepare to depart for Brazil, we are reminded of the importance of connecting with our supplier partners at their source. There is no substitute for firsthand knowledge and experience when it comes to understanding the intricacies of coffee production and the unique challenges faced by farmers in different regions. Our visits to origin allow us to forge strong relationships with our partners, gaining valuable insights into their practices, challenges, and innovations. Furthermore, our commitment to sustainability and quality is reaffirmed with each visit, as we witness firsthand the dedication and passion of the farmers who cultivate the coffee we proudly serve to our customers. As we embark on this journey, we are filled with anticipation and excitement for the experiences and discoveries that await us in Brazil. Keep an eye out on our socials for updates on this trip! Bon voyage, Dave. ![]() |